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Taipei Red Lions vs Ming Chuan University — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taipei Red Lions
Taipei Red Lions
FT
1 – 0
Ming Chuan University
Ming Chuan University
4/14/2019Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 1Taipei Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Taipei Red Lions48%
×Draw22%
Ming Chuan University30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taipei Red Lions
1.96
Ming Chuan University
1.50

Taipei Red Lions creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 45 away

creates per match

Taipei Red Lions
0.85
Ming Chuan University
0.71

allows per match

Taipei Red Lions
2.30
Ming Chuan University
3.07

finishing

Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par
Ming Chuan University+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taipei Red Lions ↓

Ming Chuan University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Taipei Red Lions or draw
70%
Taipei Red Lions or Ming Chuan University
78%
Draw or Ming Chuan University
52%

Winning margin

Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+
27%
Ming Chuan University wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals
86%
Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals
58%
Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals
31%
Ming Chuan University 1+ goals
78%
Ming Chuan University 2+ goals
44%
Ming Chuan University 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)
62%
Ming Chuan University (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taipei Red Lions at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

Ming Chuan University away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.07 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.85 + Ming Chuan University defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ming Chuan University attack 0.71 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Taipei Red Lions scores more
48%
level
22%
Ming Chuan University scores more
30%

Taipei Red Lions at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Taipei Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: Taipei Red Lions 1–0 Ming Chuan University

Taipei Red Lions beat Ming Chuan University 1-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Taipei Municipal Stadium in Taipei.