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Ming Chuan University vs Taipei Red Lions — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Ming Chuan University
Ming Chuan University
FT
0 – 3
Taipei Red Lions
Taipei Red Lions
11/8/2020Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 9Ming Chuan University Taoyuan Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ming Chuan University43%
×Draw23%
Taipei Red Lions35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ming Chuan University
1.80
Taipei Red Lions
1.61

Ming Chuan University creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ming Chuan University
1.06
Taipei Red Lions
0.70

allows per match

Ming Chuan University
2.53
Taipei Red Lions
2.55

finishing

Ming Chuan University+0.00on par
Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ming Chuan University ↓

Taipei Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ming Chuan University or draw
65%
Ming Chuan University or Taipei Red Lions
77%
Draw or Taipei Red Lions
57%

Winning margin

Ming Chuan University wins by 2+
23%
Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ming Chuan University 1+ goals
83%
Ming Chuan University 2+ goals
54%
Ming Chuan University 3+ goals
27%
Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals
80%
Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals
48%
Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ming Chuan University (draw refunded)
55%
Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ming Chuan University at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.53 · 62 matches

Taipei Red Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.55 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ming Chuan University attack 1.06 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.80

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.70 + Ming Chuan University defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ming Chuan University scores more
43%
level
23%
Taipei Red Lions scores more
35%

Ming Chuan University at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ming Chuan University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ming Chuan University vs Taipei Red Lions

Taipei Red Lions beat Ming Chuan University 3-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Ming Chuan University Taoyuan Campus in Taipeh.