Taipei Red Lions 0–1 Hang Yuen: Result & Stats

Taipei Red Lions

FT

0 – 1

Hang Yuen

4/25/2021

Taiwan Football Premier League · Round 3National Artificial Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Taipei Red Lions18%

×Draw21%

Hang Yuen61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taipei Red LionsExpected goals in this matchHang Yuen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.09

Taipei Red Lions

1.05

Hang Yuen

2.09

Hang Yuen creates 99% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 48 away

0.85

creates per match

1.88

2.30

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Taipei Red Lions

0.85

Hang Yuen

1.88

allows per match

Taipei Red Lions

2.30

Hang Yuen

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par

Hang Yuen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taipei Red Lions ↓

Hang Yuen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Taipei Red Lions or draw

39%

Taipei Red Lions or Hang Yuen

79%

Draw or Hang Yuen

82%

Winning margin

Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+

7%

Hang Yuen wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals

65%

Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals

28%

Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals

9%

Hang Yuen 1+ goals

88%

Hang Yuen 2+ goals

62%

Hang Yuen 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)

23%

Hang Yuen (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taipei Red Lions at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

Hang Yuen away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.85 + Hang Yuen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Hang Yuen attack 1.88 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Taipei Red Lions scores more

18%

level

21%

Hang Yuen scores more

61%

Hang Yuen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hang Yuen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff