Tainan City 1–3 Warriors: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Tainan City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Warriors

6/27/2022

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tainan City60%

×Draw18%

Warriors21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tainan CityExpected goals in this matchWarriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.52

Tainan City

2.60

Warriors

1.52

Tainan City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

3.20

creates per match

1.83

1.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Tainan City

3.20

Warriors

1.83

allows per match

Tainan City

1.20

Warriors

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tainan City+0.00on par

Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tainan City ↓

Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Tainan City or draw

79%

Tainan City or Warriors

82%

Draw or Warriors

40%

Winning margin

Tainan City wins by 2+

40%

Warriors wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tainan City 1+ goals

92%

Tainan City 2+ goals

73%

Tainan City 3+ goals

47%

Warriors 1+ goals

78%

Warriors 2+ goals

45%

Warriors 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tainan City (draw refunded)

74%

Warriors (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tainan City at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Warriors away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tainan City attack 3.20 + Warriors defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Warriors attack 1.83 + Tainan City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tainan City scores more

60%

level

18%

Warriors scores more

21%

Tainan City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tainan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff