Tainan City 3–0 Ulaanbaatar: Result & Stats

Tainan City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ulaanbaatar

11/30/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Nanzih Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tainan City63%

×Draw19%

Ulaanbaatar17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tainan CityExpected goals in this matchUlaanbaatar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.10

Tainan City

2.27

Ulaanbaatar

1.10

Tainan City creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.20

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tainan City

3.20

Ulaanbaatar

1.00

allows per match

Tainan City

1.20

Ulaanbaatar

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tainan City+0.00on par

Ulaanbaatar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tainan City ↓

Ulaanbaatar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Tainan City or draw

83%

Tainan City or Ulaanbaatar

81%

Draw or Ulaanbaatar

37%

Winning margin

Tainan City wins by 2+

41%

Ulaanbaatar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tainan City 1+ goals

90%

Tainan City 2+ goals

66%

Tainan City 3+ goals

39%

Ulaanbaatar 1+ goals

67%

Ulaanbaatar 2+ goals

30%

Ulaanbaatar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tainan City (draw refunded)

79%

Ulaanbaatar (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tainan City at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Ulaanbaatar away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tainan City attack 3.20 + Ulaanbaatar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Ulaanbaatar attack 1.00 + Tainan City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tainan City scores more

63%

level

19%

Ulaanbaatar scores more

17%

Tainan City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tainan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff