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Tainan City vs NTUPES — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Tainan City
Tainan City
FT
5 – 0
NTUPES
NTUPES
11/8/2020Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 9National Artificial Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tainan City70%
×Draw17%
NTUPES13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tainan City
2.59
NTUPES
1.05

Tainan City creates 147% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tainan City
2.41
NTUPES
0.90

allows per match

Tainan City
1.20
NTUPES
2.77

finishing

Tainan City+0.00on par
NTUPES+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tainan City ↓

NTUPES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tainan City or draw
87%
Tainan City or NTUPES
83%
Draw or NTUPES
30%

Winning margin

Tainan City wins by 2+
48%
NTUPES wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tainan City 1+ goals
92%
Tainan City 2+ goals
73%
Tainan City 3+ goals
47%
NTUPES 1+ goals
65%
NTUPES 2+ goals
28%
NTUPES 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tainan City (draw refunded)
84%
NTUPES (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tainan City at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.20 · 64 matches

NTUPES away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tainan City attack 2.41 + NTUPES defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.59

NTUPES attack 0.90 + Tainan City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Tainan City scores more
70%
level
17%
NTUPES scores more
13%

Tainan City at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Tainan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: Tainan City 5–0 NTUPES

Tainan City beat NTUPES 5-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at National Artificial Football Stadium in Taoyuan City.