Tainan City 4–2 CPK: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Tainan City

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

CPK

A. Kouamé 88'

Lin Wei-chieh 75'

Yu Chia-huang 19'

Jean Moser 11'

Niki Torrão 53', 23'

12/10/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Nanzih Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tainan City73%

×Draw16%

CPK12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tainan CityExpected goals in this matchCPK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

0.94

Tainan City

2.60

CPK

0.94

Tainan City creates 177% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.20

creates per match

0.67

1.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Tainan City

3.20

CPK

0.67

allows per match

Tainan City

1.20

CPK

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tainan City+0.00on par

CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tainan City ↓

CPK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Tainan City or draw

88%

Tainan City or CPK

84%

Draw or CPK

27%

Winning margin

Tainan City wins by 2+

51%

CPK wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tainan City 1+ goals

92%

Tainan City 2+ goals

73%

Tainan City 3+ goals

47%

CPK 1+ goals

61%

CPK 2+ goals

24%

CPK 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tainan City (draw refunded)

86%

CPK (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tainan City at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

CPK away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tainan City attack 3.20 + CPK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

CPK attack 0.67 + Tainan City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Tainan City scores more

73%

level

16%

CPK scores more

12%

Tainan City at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Tainan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Kouamé

Tainan City · F

8.5

Match Events

11'

Jean Moser

19'

Yu Chia-huang↳ Jean Moser

23'

Niki Torrão↳ Bruno Araújo

30'

Kohei Kato

46'

R. Carissimo← Ieong Lek-Hang

53'

Niki Torrão↳ R. Carissimo

54'

Ronald Carissimo

56'

Yu Chia Huang

56'

Lin Ming-wei← Yao Ko-chi

56'

Lin Wei-chieh← Yu Chia-huang

69'

Leong Ka Hang← Diego

70'

Chen Wei-chuan← Jean Moser

73'

Chen Wei-chuan

75'

Lin Wei-chieh↳ A. Kouamé

84'

Leung Chi Seng← Lam Ka Seng

88'

A. Kouamé↳ Kuo Po-wei

89'

Chen Po-yu← Wu Chun-ching

89'

Choi Dion Carlos← Ng Wa Keng

90+5'

Po-Yu Chen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TainanCPK

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots14

5Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots14

5On Target6

2Off Target7

1Blocked1

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

337Total Passes391

259Accurate Passes308

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5