Taichung Futuro 1–3 Abdish-Ata: Result & Stats

Taichung Futuro

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Abdish-Ata

B. Estama 2'

N. Sarykbaev 81'

M. Uzdenov 63'

F. Musabekov 60'

3/13/2024

AFC Cup · Inter-zonal Semi-finalsNanzih Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Taichung Futuro31%

×Draw24%

Abdish-Ata45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taichung FuturoExpected goals in this matchAbdish-Ata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.65

Taichung Futuro

1.32

Abdish-Ata

1.65

Abdish-Ata creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.80

1.50

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Taichung Futuro

1.25

Abdish-Ata

1.80

allows per match

Taichung Futuro

1.50

Abdish-Ata

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taichung Futuro+0.00on par

Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taichung Futuro ↓

Abdish-Ata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Taichung Futuro or draw

55%

Taichung Futuro or Abdish-Ata

76%

Draw or Abdish-Ata

69%

Winning margin

Taichung Futuro wins by 2+

13%

Abdish-Ata wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Taichung Futuro 1+ goals

73%

Taichung Futuro 2+ goals

38%

Taichung Futuro 3+ goals

15%

Abdish-Ata 1+ goals

81%

Abdish-Ata 2+ goals

49%

Abdish-Ata 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Taichung Futuro (draw refunded)

40%

Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taichung Futuro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Abdish-Ata away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taichung Futuro attack 1.25 + Abdish-Ata defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Abdish-Ata attack 1.80 + Taichung Futuro defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Taichung Futuro scores more

31%

level

24%

Abdish-Ata scores more

45%

Abdish-Ata at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Musabekov

Abdish-Ata · M

8.3

Match Events

2'

B. Estama↳ K. Takayama

16'

Amantur Shamurzaev

33'

Takuro Uehara

38'

N. Sarykbaev← A. Sharshenbekov

60'

F. Musabekov↳ K. Zhyrgalbek

61'

M. Akhmataliev← A. Dzhumashev

61'

S. Muhadow← E. Batyrkanov

62'

Nagisa Sakurauchi

63'

M. Uzdenov

67'

Hsu Heng-pin← Cheng Hao

72'

Tsai Chieh-hsun← Li Mao

73'

Wen Chih-Hao

78'

B. Sagynbaev← K. Zhyrgalbek

78'

E. Abduzhaparov← A. Shamurzaev

81'

N. Sarykbaev

87'

Chen Chun-fu← Liang Meng-hsin

87'

Lin Che-yu← Komori Yoshitaka

90+3'

Wen Chih-Hao

90+3'

Wen Chih-Hao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TaichungAbdish-Ata

Overview

31%Possession69%

5Total Shots21

1Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots21

1On Target10

3Off Target8

1Blocked3

4Inside Box8

1Outside Box13

Passing

31%Possession69%

314Total Passes707

228Accurate Passes616

73%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2