Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tahiti W vs Luxembourg W — Friendlies Women 2026

Tahiti W
Tahiti W
FT
0 – 11
Luxembourg W
Luxembourg W
2/19/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tahiti W18%
×Draw17%
Luxembourg W65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tahiti W
1.44
Luxembourg W
2.81

Luxembourg W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tahiti W
0.50
Luxembourg W
2.63

allows per match

Tahiti W
3.00
Luxembourg W
2.38

finishing

Tahiti W+0.00on par
Luxembourg W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tahiti W ↓

Luxembourg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Tahiti W or draw
35%
Tahiti W or Luxembourg W
83%
Draw or Luxembourg W
82%

Winning margin

Tahiti W wins by 2+
7%
Luxembourg W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Tahiti W 1+ goals
76%
Tahiti W 2+ goals
42%
Tahiti W 3+ goals
18%
Luxembourg W 1+ goals
94%
Luxembourg W 2+ goals
76%
Luxembourg W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Tahiti W (draw refunded)
22%
Luxembourg W (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tahiti W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Luxembourg W away — creates 2.63, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tahiti W attack 0.50 + Luxembourg W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Luxembourg W attack 2.63 + Tahiti W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tahiti W scores more
18%
level
17%
Luxembourg W scores more
65%

Luxembourg W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Luxembourg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Tahiti W 0–11 Luxembourg W

Luxembourg W beat Tahiti W 11-0 in Friendlies Women on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Parc des Sports in Molsheim.