Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Taguig vs Loyola — PFL 2020

Taguig
Taguig
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Loyola
Loyola
3/12/2025PFLPFL · Round 7Biñan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Taguig82%
×Draw11%
Loyola7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taguig
3.46
Loyola
1.01

Taguig creates 243% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

creates per match

Taguig
4.11
Loyola
1.38

allows per match

Taguig
0.64
Loyola
2.81

finishing

Taguig+0.00on par
Loyola+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taguig ↓

Loyola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Taguig or draw
93%
Taguig or Loyola
89%
Draw or Loyola
18%

Winning margin

Taguig wins by 2+
64%
Loyola wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Taguig 1+ goals
97%
Taguig 2+ goals
85%
Taguig 3+ goals
65%
Loyola 1+ goals
64%
Loyola 2+ goals
27%
Loyola 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Taguig (draw refunded)
92%
Loyola (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taguig at home — creates 4.11, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

Loyola away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taguig attack 4.11 + Loyola defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 3.46

Loyola attack 1.38 + Taguig defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Taguig scores more
82%
level
11%
Loyola scores more
7%

Taguig at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Taguig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taguig vs Loyola

Taguig beat Loyola 5-1 in PFL on March 12, 2025.

The match was played at Biñan Football Stadium in Biñan.