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Täfteå vs Boden City — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Täfteå
Täfteå
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Boden City
Boden City
C. Eriksson 72'
L. Markgren 26'
M. Bello 59'
9/3/2025Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - Promotion Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Täfteå46%
×Draw23%
Boden City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Täfteå
1.86
Boden City
1.51

Täfteå creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 12 away

creates per match

Täfteå
1.65
Boden City
1.33

allows per match

Täfteå
1.69
Boden City
2.08

finishing

Täfteå+0.00on par
Boden City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Täfteå ↓

Boden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Täfteå or draw
68%
Täfteå or Boden City
77%
Draw or Boden City
54%

Winning margin

Täfteå wins by 2+
25%
Boden City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Täfteå 1+ goals
84%
Täfteå 2+ goals
55%
Täfteå 3+ goals
28%
Boden City 1+ goals
78%
Boden City 2+ goals
44%
Boden City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Täfteå (draw refunded)
59%
Boden City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Täfteå at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

Boden City away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Täfteå attack 1.65 + Boden City defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Boden City attack 1.33 + Täfteå defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Täfteå scores more
46%
level
23%
Boden City scores more
32%

Täfteå at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Täfteå will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
L. Markgren
59'
M. Bello
72'
C. Eriksson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norrland: Täfteå 2–1 Boden City

Täfteå beat Boden City 2-1 in Division 2 - Norrland on September 3, 2025.

Goals: L. Markgren (26'), M. Bello (59'), C. Eriksson (72').