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Tadjenant vs MO Bejaia — Ligue 1 2018

Tadjenant
Tadjenant
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
10/5/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tadjenant52%
×Draw30%
MO Bejaia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadjenant
1.27
MO Bejaia
0.64

Tadjenant creates 98% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tadjenant
0.87
MO Bejaia
0.80

allows per match

Tadjenant
0.47
MO Bejaia
1.67

finishing

Tadjenant+0.00on par
MO Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadjenant ↓

MO Bejaia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tadjenant or draw
81%
Tadjenant or MO Bejaia
70%
Draw or MO Bejaia
48%

Winning margin

Tadjenant wins by 2+
24%
MO Bejaia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tadjenant 1+ goals
72%
Tadjenant 2+ goals
36%
Tadjenant 3+ goals
14%
MO Bejaia 1+ goals
47%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
14%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tadjenant (draw refunded)
73%
MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadjenant at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

MO Bejaia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + MO Bejaia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

MO Bejaia attack 0.80 + Tadjenant defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tadjenant scores more
52%
level
30%
MO Bejaia scores more
19%

Tadjenant at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tadjenant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Tadjenant 1–2 MO Bejaia

MO Bejaia beat Tadjenant 2-1 in Ligue 1 on October 5, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet).