Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tadjenant vs MC Oran — Ligue 1 2018

Tadjenant
Tadjenant
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
MC Oran
MC Oran
5/11/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tadjenant48%
×Draw32%
MC Oran20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadjenant
1.13
MC Oran
0.63

Tadjenant creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 122 away

creates per match

Tadjenant
0.87
MC Oran
0.78

allows per match

Tadjenant
0.47
MC Oran
1.38

finishing

Tadjenant+0.00on par
MC Oran+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadjenant ↓

MC Oran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tadjenant or draw
80%
Tadjenant or MC Oran
68%
Draw or MC Oran
52%

Winning margin

Tadjenant wins by 2+
20%
MC Oran wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tadjenant 1+ goals
68%
Tadjenant 2+ goals
31%
Tadjenant 3+ goals
11%
MC Oran 1+ goals
47%
MC Oran 2+ goals
13%
MC Oran 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tadjenant (draw refunded)
70%
MC Oran (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadjenant at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

MC Oran away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + MC Oran defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

MC Oran attack 0.78 + Tadjenant defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tadjenant scores more
48%
level
32%
MC Oran scores more
20%

Tadjenant at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tadjenant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Tadjenant 0–0 MC Oran

Tadjenant and MC Oran drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet).