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Tadjenant vs Hussein Dey — Ligue 1 2018

Tadjenant
Tadjenant
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hussein Dey
Hussein Dey
8/28/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tadjenant50%
×Draw31%
Hussein Dey19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadjenant
1.20
Hussein Dey
0.63

Tadjenant creates 90% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

creates per match

Tadjenant
0.87
Hussein Dey
0.79

allows per match

Tadjenant
0.47
Hussein Dey
1.52

finishing

Tadjenant+0.00on par
Hussein Dey+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadjenant ↓

Hussein Dey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tadjenant or draw
81%
Tadjenant or Hussein Dey
69%
Draw or Hussein Dey
50%

Winning margin

Tadjenant wins by 2+
22%
Hussein Dey wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tadjenant 1+ goals
70%
Tadjenant 2+ goals
34%
Tadjenant 3+ goals
12%
Hussein Dey 1+ goals
47%
Hussein Dey 2+ goals
13%
Hussein Dey 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tadjenant (draw refunded)
72%
Hussein Dey (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadjenant at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Hussein Dey away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.52 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + Hussein Dey defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.20

Hussein Dey attack 0.79 + Tadjenant defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tadjenant scores more
50%
level
31%
Hussein Dey scores more
19%

Tadjenant at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tadjenant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tadjenant vs Hussein Dey

Hussein Dey beat Tadjenant 2-1 in Ligue 1 on August 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet).