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Tadjenant vs Bordj Bou Arreridj — Ligue 1 2018

Tadjenant
Tadjenant
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bordj Bou Arreridj
Bordj Bou Arreridj
9/11/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tadjenant55%
×Draw30%
Bordj Bou Arreridj15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadjenant
1.25
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.50

Tadjenant creates 150% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tadjenant
0.87
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.53

allows per match

Tadjenant
0.47
Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.62

finishing

Tadjenant+0.00on par
Bordj Bou Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadjenant ↓

Bordj Bou Arreridj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tadjenant or draw
85%
Tadjenant or Bordj Bou Arreridj
70%
Draw or Bordj Bou Arreridj
45%

Winning margin

Tadjenant wins by 2+
26%
Bordj Bou Arreridj wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tadjenant 1+ goals
71%
Tadjenant 2+ goals
36%
Tadjenant 3+ goals
13%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 1+ goals
39%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 2+ goals
9%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Tadjenant (draw refunded)
79%
Bordj Bou Arreridj (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadjenant at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Bordj Bou Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + Bordj Bou Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bordj Bou Arreridj attack 0.53 + Tadjenant defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tadjenant scores more
55%
level
30%
Bordj Bou Arreridj scores more
15%

Tadjenant at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tadjenant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Tadjenant 3–1 Bordj Bou Arreridj

Tadjenant beat Bordj Bou Arreridj 3-1 in Ligue 1 on September 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet).