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Tadjenant vs AS Ain Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

Tadjenant
Tadjenant
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
11/6/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tadjenant54%
×Draw28%
AS Ain Mlila18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadjenant
1.34
AS Ain Mlila
0.63

Tadjenant creates 113% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tadjenant
0.87
AS Ain Mlila
0.78

allows per match

Tadjenant
0.47
AS Ain Mlila
1.82

finishing

Tadjenant+0.00on par
AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadjenant ↓

AS Ain Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tadjenant or draw
82%
Tadjenant or AS Ain Mlila
72%
Draw or AS Ain Mlila
46%

Winning margin

Tadjenant wins by 2+
26%
AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tadjenant 1+ goals
74%
Tadjenant 2+ goals
39%
Tadjenant 3+ goals
15%
AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
47%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
13%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tadjenant (draw refunded)
75%
AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadjenant at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

AS Ain Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + AS Ain Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

AS Ain Mlila attack 0.78 + Tadjenant defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tadjenant scores more
54%
level
28%
AS Ain Mlila scores more
18%

Tadjenant at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tadjenant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tadjenant vs AS Ain Mlila

Tadjenant and AS Ain Mlila drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on November 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet).