Tadamon Sour 0–1 Tripoli SC: Result & Stats

Tadamon Sour

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tripoli SC

5/9/2024

Premier League · Relegation Round - 13Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tadamon Sour34%

×Draw31%

Tripoli SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tadamon SourExpected goals in this matchTripoli SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.02

Tadamon Sour

1.01

Tripoli SC

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 36 away

0.89

creates per match

0.92

1.13

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Tadamon Sour

0.89

Tripoli SC

0.92

allows per match

Tadamon Sour

1.13

Tripoli SC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Tripoli SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadamon Sour ↓

Tripoli SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tadamon Sour or draw

65%

Tadamon Sour or Tripoli SC

69%

Draw or Tripoli SC

66%

Winning margin

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+

13%

Tripoli SC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals

64%

Tadamon Sour 2+ goals

27%

Tadamon Sour 3+ goals

8%

Tripoli SC 1+ goals

64%

Tripoli SC 2+ goals

27%

Tripoli SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)

50%

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadamon Sour at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 61 matches

Tripoli SC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadamon Sour attack 0.89 + Tripoli SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Tripoli SC attack 0.92 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tadamon Sour scores more

34%

level

31%

Tripoli SC scores more

35%

Tripoli SC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Tripoli SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff