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Tadamon Sour vs Shabab Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
5/22/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 15Al Safa SC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Tadamon Sour33%
×Draw29%
Shabab Al Sahel38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadamon Sour
1.06
Shabab Al Sahel
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 64 away

creates per match

Tadamon Sour
0.89
Shabab Al Sahel
1.19

allows per match

Tadamon Sour
1.13
Shabab Al Sahel
1.23

finishing

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par
Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadamon Sour ↓

Shabab Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tadamon Sour or draw
62%
Tadamon Sour or Shabab Al Sahel
71%
Draw or Shabab Al Sahel
67%

Winning margin

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
13%
Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
65%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
29%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
9%
Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
69%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
32%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
46%
Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadamon Sour at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 61 matches

Shabab Al Sahel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadamon Sour attack 0.89 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.19 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tadamon Sour scores more
33%
level
29%
Shabab Al Sahel scores more
38%

Shabab Al Sahel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tadamon Sour vs Shabab Al Sahel

Shabab Al Sahel beat Tadamon Sour 1-0 in Premier League on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Al Safa SC Stadium in Beirut.