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Tacuary vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Tacuary
Tacuary
FT
0 – 0
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
4/10/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 1Estadio Roque Battilana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tacuary48%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Iteno27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
1.56
Sportivo Iteno
1.11

Tacuary creates 41% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 63 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.32
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Tacuary
1.24
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
73%
Tacuary or Sportivo Iteno
75%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
52%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
24%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
79%
Tacuary 2+ goals
46%
Tacuary 3+ goals
21%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
67%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
30%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
64%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.32 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Tacuary defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tacuary scores more
48%
level
25%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
27%

Tacuary at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Tacuary 0–0 Sportivo Iteno

Tacuary and Sportivo Iteno drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Roque Battilana in Asunción.