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Tacuary vs Olimpia — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Tacuary
Tacuary
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpia
Olimpia
4/23/2023Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 14Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tacuary25%
×Draw25%
Olimpia50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
1.04
Olimpia
1.57

Olimpia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 97 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.12
Olimpia
1.76

allows per match

Tacuary
1.39
Olimpia
0.97

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
50%
Tacuary or Olimpia
75%
Draw or Olimpia
75%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
9%
Olimpia wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
65%
Tacuary 2+ goals
28%
Tacuary 3+ goals
9%
Olimpia 1+ goals
79%
Olimpia 2+ goals
46%
Olimpia 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
34%
Olimpia (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.12 + Olimpia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Olimpia attack 1.76 + Tacuary defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tacuary scores more
25%
level
25%
Olimpia scores more
50%

Olimpia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacuary vs Olimpia

Olimpia beat Tacuary 1-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.