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Tacuary vs Guairena FC — Division Intermedia 2026

Tacuary
Tacuary
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guairena FC
Guairena FC
C. Paredes 90'
8/29/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 25Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Tacuary38%
×Draw29%
Guairena FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
1.18
Guairena FC
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 67 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.27
Guairena FC
0.99

allows per match

Tacuary
1.20
Guairena FC
1.09

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Guairena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
67%
Tacuary or Guairena FC
71%
Draw or Guairena FC
62%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
16%
Guairena FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
69%
Tacuary 2+ goals
33%
Tacuary 3+ goals
12%
Guairena FC 1+ goals
66%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
30%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
53%
Guairena FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.27 + Guairena FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Guairena FC attack 0.99 + Tacuary defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tacuary scores more
38%
level
29%
Guairena FC scores more
33%

Tacuary at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
C. Paredes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacuary vs Guairena FC

Guairena FC beat Tacuary 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 29, 2025.

Goals: C. Paredes (90').

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni.