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Tacuary vs General Caballero — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Tacuary
Tacuary
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
General Caballero
General Caballero
3/6/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tacuary33%
×Draw22%
General Caballero46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
1.67
General Caballero
2.00

General Caballero creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.33
General Caballero
1.00

allows per match

Tacuary
3.00
General Caballero
2.00

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

General Caballero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
54%
Tacuary or General Caballero
78%
Draw or General Caballero
67%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
16%
General Caballero wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
81%
Tacuary 2+ goals
50%
Tacuary 3+ goals
23%
General Caballero 1+ goals
86%
General Caballero 2+ goals
59%
General Caballero 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
42%
General Caballero (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

General Caballero away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.33 + General Caballero defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

General Caballero attack 1.00 + Tacuary defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tacuary scores more
33%
level
22%
General Caballero scores more
46%

General Caballero at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacuary vs General Caballero

Tacuary and General Caballero drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.