Tacuary 0–2 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Tacuary

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Club Guarani

6/19/2022

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 19Estadio River Plate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tacuary29%

×Draw27%

Club Guarani44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TacuaryExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.39

Tacuary

1.09

Club Guarani

1.39

Club Guarani creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 97 away

1.12

creates per match

1.39

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Tacuary

1.12

Club Guarani

1.39

allows per match

Tacuary

1.39

Club Guarani

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw

56%

Tacuary or Club Guarani

73%

Draw or Club Guarani

71%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+

11%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals

66%

Tacuary 2+ goals

30%

Tacuary 3+ goals

10%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

75%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

40%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)

40%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.12 + Club Guarani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Club Guarani attack 1.39 + Tacuary defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tacuary scores more

29%

level

27%

Club Guarani scores more

44%

Club Guarani at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff