Tacuary 2–2 Cerro Porteno: Result & Stats

Tacuary

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cerro Porteno

6/11/2023

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 22Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tacuary26%

×Draw26%

Cerro Porteno48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TacuaryExpected goals in this matchCerro Porteno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.52

Tacuary

1.05

Cerro Porteno

1.52

Cerro Porteno creates 45% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 96 away

1.12

creates per match

1.66

1.39

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Tacuary

1.12

Cerro Porteno

1.66

allows per match

Tacuary

1.39

Cerro Porteno

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Cerro Porteno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw

52%

Tacuary or Cerro Porteno

74%

Draw or Cerro Porteno

74%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+

10%

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals

65%

Tacuary 2+ goals

28%

Tacuary 3+ goals

9%

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals

78%

Cerro Porteno 2+ goals

45%

Cerro Porteno 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)

35%

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.12 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cerro Porteno attack 1.66 + Tacuary defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tacuary scores more

26%

level

26%

Cerro Porteno scores more

48%

Cerro Porteno at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff