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Tacuary vs 12 de Octubre — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Tacuary
Tacuary
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
2/11/2022Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 2Estadio Manuel Ferreira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tacuary38%
×Draw28%
12 de Octubre35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
1.24
12 de Octubre
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.12
12 de Octubre
0.94

allows per match

Tacuary
1.39
12 de Octubre
1.35

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

12 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
65%
Tacuary or 12 de Octubre
72%
Draw or 12 de Octubre
62%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
16%
12 de Octubre wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
71%
Tacuary 2+ goals
35%
Tacuary 3+ goals
13%
12 de Octubre 1+ goals
69%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
33%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
52%
12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.12 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

12 de Octubre attack 0.94 + Tacuary defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tacuary scores more
38%
level
28%
12 de Octubre scores more
35%

Tacuary at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Tacuary 1–1 12 de Octubre

Tacuary and 12 de Octubre drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Ferreira in Asunción.