Tacuarembo 0–0 Uruguay Montevideo: Result & Stats

Tacuarembo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Uruguay Montevideo

9/25/2024

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 19Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Tacuarembo39%

×Draw30%

Uruguay Montevideo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TacuaremboExpected goals in this matchUruguay Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.96

Tacuarembo

1.10

Uruguay Montevideo

0.96

Tacuarembo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 71 away

1.14

creates per match

0.99

0.93

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Tacuarembo

1.14

Uruguay Montevideo

0.99

allows per match

Tacuarembo

0.93

Uruguay Montevideo

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacuarembo+0.00on par

Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuarembo ↓

Uruguay Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tacuarembo or draw

69%

Tacuarembo or Uruguay Montevideo

70%

Draw or Uruguay Montevideo

61%

Winning margin

Tacuarembo wins by 2+

16%

Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tacuarembo 1+ goals

67%

Tacuarembo 2+ goals

30%

Tacuarembo 3+ goals

10%

Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals

62%

Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals

25%

Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)

55%

Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuarembo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 96 matches

Uruguay Montevideo away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuarembo attack 1.14 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Uruguay Montevideo attack 0.99 + Tacuarembo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tacuarembo scores more

39%

level

30%

Uruguay Montevideo scores more

31%

Tacuarembo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tacuarembo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff