Tacón W 0–1 Edf Logrono W: Result & Stats

Tacón W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Edf Logrono W

1/26/2020

Primera División Femenina · Round 18Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tacón W48%

×Draw23%

Edf Logrono W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tacón WExpected goals in this matchEdf Logrono W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.36

Tacón W

1.83

Edf Logrono W

1.36

Tacón W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 57 away

1.64

creates per match

0.91

1.82

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Tacón W

1.64

Edf Logrono W

0.91

allows per match

Tacón W

1.82

Edf Logrono W

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacón W+0.00on par

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacón W ↓

Edf Logrono W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tacón W or draw

71%

Tacón W or Edf Logrono W

77%

Draw or Edf Logrono W

52%

Winning margin

Tacón W wins by 2+

27%

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tacón W 1+ goals

84%

Tacón W 2+ goals

54%

Tacón W 3+ goals

28%

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals

74%

Edf Logrono W 2+ goals

39%

Edf Logrono W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tacón W (draw refunded)

63%

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacón W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Edf Logrono W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacón W attack 1.64 + Edf Logrono W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.83

Edf Logrono W attack 0.91 + Tacón W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tacón W scores more

48%

level

23%

Edf Logrono W scores more

29%

Tacón W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tacón W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff