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Tacón W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Tacón W
Tacón W
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
3/1/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 22Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tacón W49%
×Draw22%
Deportivo de La Coruña W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacón W
1.99
Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.52

Tacón W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 59 away

creates per match

Tacón W
1.64
Deportivo de La Coruña W
1.22

allows per match

Tacón W
1.82
Deportivo de La Coruña W
2.34

finishing

Tacón W+0.00on par
Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacón W ↓

Deportivo de La Coruña W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Tacón W or draw
70%
Tacón W or Deportivo de La Coruña W
78%
Draw or Deportivo de La Coruña W
51%

Winning margin

Tacón W wins by 2+
28%
Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tacón W 1+ goals
86%
Tacón W 2+ goals
59%
Tacón W 3+ goals
32%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tacón W (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacón W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacón W attack 1.64 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.99

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.22 + Tacón W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tacón W scores more
49%
level
22%
Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more
30%

Tacón W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tacón W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Tacón W 3–4 Deportivo de La Coruña W

Deportivo de La Coruña W beat Tacón W 4-3 in Primera División Femenina on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11 in Madrid.