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Tacón W vs Barcelona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Tacón W
Tacón W
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
1/11/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 16Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tacón W11%
×Draw15%
Barcelona W74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacón W
0.99
Barcelona W
2.76

Barcelona W creates 179% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 119 away

creates per match

Tacón W
1.64
Barcelona W
3.70

allows per match

Tacón W
1.82
Barcelona W
0.34

finishing

Tacón W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacón W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tacón W or draw
26%
Tacón W or Barcelona W
85%
Draw or Barcelona W
89%

Winning margin

Tacón W wins by 2+
4%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Tacón W 1+ goals
63%
Tacón W 2+ goals
26%
Tacón W 3+ goals
8%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
94%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
76%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Tacón W (draw refunded)
13%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacón W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacón W attack 1.64 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 0.99

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Tacón W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Tacón W scores more
11%
level
15%
Barcelona W scores more
74%

Barcelona W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Tacón W 0–6 Barcelona W

Barcelona W beat Tacón W 6-0 in Primera División Femenina on January 11, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 11 in Madrid.