Tacoma Defiance 2–0 Ventura County: Result & Stats

Tacoma Defiance

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ventura County

6/27/2021

USL Championship · Round 15Cheney Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tacoma Defiance48%

×Draw23%

Ventura County30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tacoma DefianceExpected goals in this matchVentura County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.40

Tacoma Defiance

1.83

Ventura County

1.40

Tacoma Defiance creates 31% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 77 away

1.62

creates per match

1.39

1.41

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Tacoma Defiance

1.62

Ventura County

1.39

allows per match

Tacoma Defiance

1.41

Ventura County

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Defiance ↓

Ventura County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tacoma Defiance or draw

70%

Tacoma Defiance or Ventura County

77%

Draw or Ventura County

52%

Winning margin

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

26%

Ventura County wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

84%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

54%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

28%

Ventura County 1+ goals

75%

Ventura County 2+ goals

41%

Ventura County 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

62%

Ventura County (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.04 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.62 + Ventura County defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ventura County attack 1.39 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tacoma Defiance scores more

48%

level

23%

Ventura County scores more

30%

Tacoma Defiance at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff