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Tacoma Defiance vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
9/29/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 56Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tacoma Defiance47%
×Draw24%
Tulsa Roughnecks29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacoma Defiance
1.72
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.30

Tacoma Defiance creates 32% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 130 away

creates per match

Tacoma Defiance
1.62
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

Tacoma Defiance
1.41
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Defiance ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tacoma Defiance or draw
71%
Tacoma Defiance or Tulsa Roughnecks
76%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
53%

Winning margin

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+
25%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals
82%
Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals
51%
Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals
25%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
73%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
37%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)
62%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.62 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tacoma Defiance scores more
47%
level
24%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
29%

Tacoma Defiance at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacoma Defiance vs Tulsa Roughnecks

Tacoma Defiance and Tulsa Roughnecks drew 1-1 in USL Championship on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington).