Tacoma Defiance 1–2 San Diego Loyal: Result & Stats

Tacoma Defiance

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

San Diego Loyal

3/12/2020

USL Championship · Round 3Cheney Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tacoma Defiance39%

×Draw24%

San Diego Loyal37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tacoma DefianceExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Loyal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.48

Tacoma Defiance

1.54

San Diego Loyal

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 59 away

1.62

creates per match

1.54

1.41

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Tacoma Defiance

1.62

San Diego Loyal

1.54

allows per match

Tacoma Defiance

1.41

San Diego Loyal

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Defiance ↓

San Diego Loyal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tacoma Defiance or draw

63%

Tacoma Defiance or San Diego Loyal

76%

Draw or San Diego Loyal

61%

Winning margin

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

19%

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

79%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

45%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

20%

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

77%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

43%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

52%

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.62 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tacoma Defiance scores more

39%

level

24%

San Diego Loyal scores more

37%

Tacoma Defiance at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff