Tachov 0–0 Příbram II: Result & Stats

Tachov

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Příbram II

3/16/2024

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 18Stadion města Tachova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tachov33%

×Draw22%

Příbram II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TachovExpected goals in this matchPříbram II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.00

Tachov

1.67

Příbram II

2.00

Příbram II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.00

creates per match

1.80

2.20

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Tachov

1.00

Příbram II

1.80

allows per match

Tachov

2.20

Příbram II

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tachov+0.00on par

Příbram II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tachov ↓

Příbram II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Tachov or draw

54%

Tachov or Příbram II

78%

Draw or Příbram II

67%

Winning margin

Tachov wins by 2+

16%

Příbram II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Tachov 1+ goals

81%

Tachov 2+ goals

50%

Tachov 3+ goals

23%

Příbram II 1+ goals

86%

Příbram II 2+ goals

59%

Příbram II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Tachov (draw refunded)

42%

Příbram II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tachov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

Příbram II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tachov attack 1.00 + Příbram II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Příbram II attack 1.80 + Tachov defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tachov scores more

33%

level

22%

Příbram II scores more

46%

Příbram II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Příbram II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff