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Tachov vs Petřín Plzeň — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tachov
Tachov
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
6/6/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 29Stadion města Tachova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tachov24%
×Draw21%
Petřín Plzeň56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tachov
1.33
Petřín Plzeň
2.13

Petřín Plzeň creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

creates per match

Tachov
1.00
Petřín Plzeň
2.05

allows per match

Tachov
2.20
Petřín Plzeň
1.67

finishing

Tachov+0.00on par
Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tachov ↓

Petřín Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Tachov or draw
44%
Tachov or Petřín Plzeň
79%
Draw or Petřín Plzeň
76%

Winning margin

Tachov wins by 2+
10%
Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Tachov 1+ goals
74%
Tachov 2+ goals
38%
Tachov 3+ goals
15%
Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
88%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
63%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Tachov (draw refunded)
30%
Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tachov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

Petřín Plzeň away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tachov attack 1.00 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.05 + Tachov defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tachov scores more
24%
level
21%
Petřín Plzeň scores more
56%

Petřín Plzeň at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tachov vs Petřín Plzeň

Tachov beat Petřín Plzeň 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion města Tachova in Tachov.