Tachov 1–1 Otava Katovice: Result & Stats

Tachov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Otava Katovice

3/23/2024

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 19Stadion města Tachova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tachov36%

×Draw23%

Otava Katovice41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TachovExpected goals in this matchOtava Katovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.77

Tachov

1.65

Otava Katovice

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

1.00

creates per match

1.34

2.20

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Tachov

1.00

Otava Katovice

1.34

allows per match

Tachov

2.20

Otava Katovice

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tachov+0.00on par

Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tachov ↓

Otava Katovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Tachov or draw

59%

Tachov or Otava Katovice

77%

Draw or Otava Katovice

64%

Winning margin

Tachov wins by 2+

18%

Otava Katovice wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tachov 1+ goals

81%

Tachov 2+ goals

49%

Tachov 3+ goals

23%

Otava Katovice 1+ goals

83%

Otava Katovice 2+ goals

53%

Otava Katovice 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Tachov (draw refunded)

47%

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tachov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tachov attack 1.00 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Tachov defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tachov scores more

36%

level

23%

Otava Katovice scores more

41%

Otava Katovice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff