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Tachov vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tachov
Tachov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
8/12/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 2Stadion města Tachova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tachov40%
×Draw23%
Jindřichův Hradec37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tachov
1.75
Jindřichův Hradec
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

Tachov
1.00
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Tachov
2.20
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Tachov+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tachov ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Tachov or draw
63%
Tachov or Jindřichův Hradec
77%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
60%

Winning margin

Tachov wins by 2+
21%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tachov 1+ goals
83%
Tachov 2+ goals
52%
Tachov 3+ goals
25%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
81%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
50%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tachov (draw refunded)
52%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tachov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tachov attack 1.00 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Tachov defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tachov scores more
40%
level
23%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
37%

Tachov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tachov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Tachov 1–3 Jindřichův Hradec

Jindřichův Hradec beat Tachov 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion města Tachova in Tachov.