Täby 0–2 Oddevold: Result & Stats | Svenska Cupen

Täby

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Oddevold

8/22/2024

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundTibblevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Täby14%

×Draw21%

Oddevold65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TäbyExpected goals in this matchOddevold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.96

Täby

0.78

Oddevold

1.96

Oddevold creates 151% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

0.67

creates per match

1.75

2.17

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Täby

0.67

Oddevold

1.75

allows per match

Täby

2.17

Oddevold

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Täby+0.00on par

Oddevold+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Täby ↓

Oddevold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Täby or draw

35%

Täby or Oddevold

79%

Draw or Oddevold

86%

Winning margin

Täby wins by 2+

4%

Oddevold wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Täby 1+ goals

54%

Täby 2+ goals

18%

Täby 3+ goals

4%

Oddevold 1+ goals

86%

Oddevold 2+ goals

58%

Oddevold 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Täby (draw refunded)

18%

Oddevold (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Täby at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Oddevold away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Täby attack 0.67 + Oddevold defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Oddevold attack 1.75 + Täby defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Täby scores more

14%

level

21%

Oddevold scores more

65%

Oddevold at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Oddevold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff