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Täby vs Mora — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Täby
Täby
FT
3 – 1
Mora
Mora
10/13/2019Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Round 26Tibblevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Täby63%
×Draw19%
Mora18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Täby
2.33
Mora
1.17

Täby creates 99% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 13 away

creates per match

Täby
2.29
Mora
1.15

allows per match

Täby
1.20
Mora
2.38

finishing

Täby+0.00on par
Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Täby ↓

Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Täby or draw
82%
Täby or Mora
81%
Draw or Mora
37%

Winning margin

Täby wins by 2+
41%
Mora wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Täby 1+ goals
90%
Täby 2+ goals
67%
Täby 3+ goals
41%
Mora 1+ goals
69%
Mora 2+ goals
33%
Mora 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Täby (draw refunded)
78%
Mora (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Täby at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Mora away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Täby attack 2.29 + Mora defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.33

Mora attack 1.15 + Täby defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Täby scores more
63%
level
19%
Mora scores more
18%

Täby at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Täby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Täby 3–1 Mora

Täby beat Mora 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Tibblevallen in Täby.