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Täby vs Boden — Ettan - Norra 2019

Täby
Täby
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Boden
Boden
6/4/2023Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 11Vikingavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Täby44%
×Draw23%
Boden33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Täby
1.79
Boden
1.54

Täby creates 16% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Täby
1.37
Boden
1.23

allows per match

Täby
1.85
Boden
2.20

finishing

Täby+0.00on par
Boden+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Täby ↓

Boden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Täby or draw
67%
Täby or Boden
77%
Draw or Boden
56%

Winning margin

Täby wins by 2+
23%
Boden wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Täby 1+ goals
83%
Täby 2+ goals
53%
Täby 3+ goals
26%
Boden 1+ goals
79%
Boden 2+ goals
45%
Boden 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Täby (draw refunded)
57%
Boden (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Täby at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.85 · 75 matches

Boden away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Täby attack 1.37 + Boden defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Boden attack 1.23 + Täby defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Täby scores more
44%
level
23%
Boden scores more
33%

Täby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Täby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Täby 3 – 3 Boden

Täby and Boden drew 3-3 in Ettan - Norra on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Vikingavallen in Täby.