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Täby vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Täby
Täby
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
6/2/2024Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 11Tibblevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Täby41%
×Draw22%
AFC Eskilstuna38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Täby
1.88
AFC Eskilstuna
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 37 away

creates per match

Täby
1.37
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Täby
1.85
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Täby+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Täby ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Täby or draw
62%
Täby or AFC Eskilstuna
78%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
59%

Winning margin

Täby wins by 2+
22%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Täby 1+ goals
85%
Täby 2+ goals
56%
Täby 3+ goals
29%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
84%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
54%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Täby (draw refunded)
52%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Täby at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.85 · 75 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Täby attack 1.37 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Täby defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Täby scores more
41%
level
22%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
38%

Täby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Täby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Täby vs AFC Eskilstuna

Täby beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-0 in Ettan - Norra on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Tibblevallen in Täby.