Táborsko 1–1 Sparta Praha II: Result & Stats | FNL

Táborsko

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sparta Praha II

4/10/2026

FNL · Round 22Stadion Kvapilova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Táborsko51%

×Draw25%

Sparta Praha II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TáborskoExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.00

Táborsko

1.58

Sparta Praha II

1.00

Táborsko creates 58% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 75 away

1.36

creates per match

1.15

0.86

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Táborsko

1.36

Sparta Praha II

1.15

allows per match

Táborsko

0.86

Sparta Praha II

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Táborsko+0.00on par

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Táborsko ↓

Sparta Praha II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Táborsko or draw

76%

Táborsko or Sparta Praha II

75%

Draw or Sparta Praha II

49%

Winning margin

Táborsko wins by 2+

26%

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Táborsko 1+ goals

79%

Táborsko 2+ goals

47%

Táborsko 3+ goals

21%

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

63%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

26%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Táborsko (draw refunded)

68%

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Táborsko at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 88 matches

Sparta Praha II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Táborsko attack 1.36 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sparta Praha II attack 1.15 + Táborsko defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Táborsko scores more

51%

level

25%

Sparta Praha II scores more

24%

Táborsko at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Táborsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff