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Táborsko vs Chrudim — FNL 2019

Táborsko
Táborsko
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chrudim
Chrudim
3/2/2024FNLFNL · Round 17Stadion Kvapilova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Táborsko48%
×Draw26%
Chrudim26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Táborsko
1.46
Chrudim
0.99

Táborsko creates 47% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 104 away

creates per match

Táborsko
1.36
Chrudim
1.13

allows per match

Táborsko
0.86
Chrudim
1.56

finishing

Táborsko+0.00on par
Chrudim+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Táborsko ↓

Chrudim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Táborsko or draw
74%
Táborsko or Chrudim
74%
Draw or Chrudim
52%

Winning margin

Táborsko wins by 2+
24%
Chrudim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Táborsko 1+ goals
77%
Táborsko 2+ goals
43%
Táborsko 3+ goals
18%
Chrudim 1+ goals
63%
Chrudim 2+ goals
26%
Chrudim 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Táborsko (draw refunded)
65%
Chrudim (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Táborsko at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 88 matches

Chrudim away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Táborsko attack 1.36 + Chrudim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chrudim attack 1.13 + Táborsko defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Táborsko scores more
48%
level
26%
Chrudim scores more
26%

Táborsko at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Táborsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Táborsko 0–0 Chrudim

Táborsko and Chrudim drew 0-0 in FNL on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kvapilova in Tábor.