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Chrudim vs Táborsko — FNL 2019

Chrudim
Chrudim
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Táborsko
Táborsko
10/20/2025FNLFNL · Round 13Stadion Arnosta Kostala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Chrudim42%
×Draw26%
Táborsko32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrudim
1.44
Táborsko
1.23

Chrudim creates 17% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 88 away

creates per match

Chrudim
1.54
Táborsko
1.15

allows per match

Chrudim
1.31
Táborsko
1.34

finishing

Chrudim+0.00on par
Táborsko+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrudim ↓

Táborsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chrudim or draw
68%
Chrudim or Táborsko
74%
Draw or Táborsko
58%

Winning margin

Chrudim wins by 2+
20%
Táborsko wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chrudim 1+ goals
76%
Chrudim 2+ goals
42%
Chrudim 3+ goals
18%
Táborsko 1+ goals
71%
Táborsko 2+ goals
35%
Táborsko 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chrudim (draw refunded)
57%
Táborsko (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrudim at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 104 matches

Táborsko away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrudim attack 1.54 + Táborsko defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Táborsko attack 1.15 + Chrudim defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chrudim scores more
42%
level
26%
Táborsko scores more
32%

Chrudim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chrudim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Chrudim 0–3 Táborsko

Táborsko beat Chrudim 3-0 in FNL on October 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Pardubice.