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Táborsko II vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Táborsko II
Táborsko II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Přeštice
Přeštice
3/17/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 18Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Táborsko II43%
×Draw24%
Přeštice33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Táborsko II
1.66
Přeštice
1.41

Táborsko II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 30 away

creates per match

Táborsko II
1.39
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Táborsko II
1.65
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Táborsko II+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Táborsko II ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Táborsko II or draw
67%
Táborsko II or Přeštice
76%
Draw or Přeštice
57%

Winning margin

Táborsko II wins by 2+
22%
Přeštice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Táborsko II 1+ goals
81%
Táborsko II 2+ goals
49%
Táborsko II 3+ goals
23%
Přeštice 1+ goals
76%
Přeštice 2+ goals
41%
Přeštice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Táborsko II (draw refunded)
57%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Táborsko II at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Táborsko II attack 1.39 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.66

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Táborsko II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Táborsko II scores more
43%
level
24%
Přeštice scores more
33%

Táborsko II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Táborsko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Táborsko II 1–0 Přeštice

Táborsko II beat Přeštice 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Svépomoc in Tábor.