Táborsko II 1–1 Loko Vltavín: Result & Stats

Táborsko II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Loko Vltavín

3/3/2024

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 16Soukeník UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Táborsko II38%

×Draw25%

Loko Vltavín37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Táborsko IIExpected goals in this matchLoko Vltavín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.44

Táborsko II

1.47

Loko Vltavín

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 87 away

1.39

creates per match

1.23

1.65

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Táborsko II

1.39

Loko Vltavín

1.23

allows per match

Táborsko II

1.65

Loko Vltavín

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Táborsko II+0.00on par

Loko Vltavín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Táborsko II ↓

Loko Vltavín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Táborsko II or draw

63%

Táborsko II or Loko Vltavín

75%

Draw or Loko Vltavín

62%

Winning margin

Táborsko II wins by 2+

18%

Loko Vltavín wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Táborsko II 1+ goals

77%

Táborsko II 2+ goals

43%

Táborsko II 3+ goals

18%

Loko Vltavín 1+ goals

76%

Loko Vltavín 2+ goals

42%

Loko Vltavín 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Táborsko II (draw refunded)

51%

Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Táborsko II at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

Loko Vltavín away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Táborsko II attack 1.39 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Loko Vltavín attack 1.23 + Táborsko II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Táborsko II scores more

38%

level

25%

Loko Vltavín scores more

37%

Táborsko II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Táborsko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff