Tabora United 0–2 Mbeya City: Result & Stats

Tabora United

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mbeya City

S. Naushad 71'

A. Buha 35' (pen)

2/7/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 15Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tabora United42%

×Draw27%

Mbeya City31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tabora UnitedExpected goals in this matchMbeya City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.13

Tabora United

1.35

Mbeya City

1.13

Tabora United creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.13

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Tabora United

1.13

Mbeya City

1.25

allows per match

Tabora United

1.00

Mbeya City

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par

Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

Mbeya City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw

69%

Tabora United or Mbeya City

73%

Draw or Mbeya City

58%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+

19%

Mbeya City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals

74%

Tabora United 2+ goals

39%

Tabora United 3+ goals

15%

Mbeya City 1+ goals

68%

Mbeya City 2+ goals

31%

Mbeya City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)

57%

Mbeya City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.13 + Mbeya City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mbeya City attack 1.25 + Tabora United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tabora United scores more

42%

level

27%

Mbeya City scores more

31%

Tabora United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tabora United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

35'

A. BuhaPenalty

71'

S. Naushad

Tabora

Mbeya

30

5

60

15

28

25

⚽

10

54

9

17

42

1

12

4

6

11

14

28

33

36

40

42

Tabora United substitutes

39Bakari20Kaiza18Kapama25Kichindo30Akandwanaho10ChilundaUlomi

Mbeya City substitutes

YassinNaushad19Msuya20Majimengi24Suleiman32Simon22KijiliZuberi

Match Recap: Tabora United vs Mbeya City

Mbeya City beat Tabora United 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 7, 2026.

Goals: A. Buha (35' pen), S. Naushad (71').

The match was played at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium.

Tabora United vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tabora United vs Mbeya City