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Tabora United vs Ihefu — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Tabora United
Tabora United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ihefu
Ihefu
5/22/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 28Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tabora United47%
×Draw29%
Ihefu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabora United
1.27
Ihefu
0.80

Tabora United creates 59% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 47 away

creates per match

Tabora United
1.07
Ihefu
0.57

allows per match

Tabora United
1.04
Ihefu
1.47

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par
Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

Ihefu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw
77%
Tabora United or Ihefu
71%
Draw or Ihefu
53%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+
22%
Ihefu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals
72%
Tabora United 2+ goals
36%
Tabora United 3+ goals
14%
Ihefu 1+ goals
55%
Ihefu 2+ goals
19%
Ihefu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)
67%
Ihefu (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.07 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Tabora United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tabora United scores more
47%
level
29%
Ihefu scores more
23%

Tabora United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tabora United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Tabora United 1–1 Ihefu

Tabora United and Ihefu drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium in Tabora.