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Tabor Sežana vs Nafta — 2. SNL 2019

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Nafta
Nafta
3/22/20242. SNL2. SNL · Round 22Stadion Rajko Štolfa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tabor Sežana32%
×Draw24%
Nafta44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabor Sežana
1.37
Nafta
1.66

Nafta creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 81 away

creates per match

Tabor Sežana
1.49
Nafta
1.98

allows per match

Tabor Sežana
1.33
Nafta
1.25

finishing

Tabor Sežana+0.00on par
Nafta+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabor Sežana ↓

Nafta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tabor Sežana or draw
56%
Tabor Sežana or Nafta
76%
Draw or Nafta
68%

Winning margin

Tabor Sežana wins by 2+
14%
Nafta wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tabor Sežana 1+ goals
75%
Tabor Sežana 2+ goals
40%
Tabor Sežana 3+ goals
16%
Nafta 1+ goals
81%
Nafta 2+ goals
49%
Nafta 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)
42%
Nafta (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabor Sežana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Nafta away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.25 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabor Sežana attack 1.49 + Nafta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Nafta attack 1.98 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tabor Sežana scores more
32%
level
24%
Nafta scores more
44%

Nafta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tabor Sežana vs Nafta

Nafta beat Tabor Sežana 4-0 in 2. SNL on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Štolfa in Sežana.