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Tabor Sežana vs Brežice — 2. SNL 2019

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
FT
1 – 0
Brežice
Brežice
3/24/20192. SNL2. SNL · Round 20Stadion Rajko Štolfa (Sežana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tabor Sežana52%
×Draw24%
Brežice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabor Sežana
1.67
Brežice
1.06

Tabor Sežana creates 58% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tabor Sežana
1.48
Brežice
0.86

allows per match

Tabor Sežana
1.27
Brežice
1.86

finishing

Tabor Sežana+0.00on par
Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabor Sežana ↓

Brežice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tabor Sežana or draw
76%
Tabor Sežana or Brežice
76%
Draw or Brežice
48%

Winning margin

Tabor Sežana wins by 2+
28%
Brežice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tabor Sežana 1+ goals
81%
Tabor Sežana 2+ goals
50%
Tabor Sežana 3+ goals
23%
Brežice 1+ goals
65%
Brežice 2+ goals
29%
Brežice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)
68%
Brežice (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabor Sežana at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabor Sežana attack 1.48 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Brežice attack 0.86 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tabor Sežana scores more
52%
level
24%
Brežice scores more
24%

Tabor Sežana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tabor Sežana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tabor Sežana vs Brežice

Tabor Sežana beat Brežice 1-0 in 2. SNL on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Štolfa (Sežana).