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Tabor Sežana vs Bilje — 2. SNL 2019

Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
Preview
16:00
Bilje
Bilje
5/9/20272. SNL2. SNL · Round 28
Big match
47%
Tabor Sežana
model favours
47%24%29%

Bilje win just 20% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tabor Sežana47%
×Draw24%
Bilje29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bilje
1.25

Tabor Sežana creates 34% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 95 away

creates per match

Tabor Sežana
1.48
Bilje
1.24

allows per match

Tabor Sežana
1.27
Bilje
1.85

finishing

Tabor Sežana+0.00on par
Bilje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabor Sežana ↓

Bilje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tabor Sežana or draw
71%
Tabor Sežana or Bilje
76%
Draw or Bilje
53%

Winning margin

Tabor Sežana wins by 2+
25%
Bilje wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tabor Sežana 1+ goals
81%
Tabor Sežana 2+ goals
50%
Tabor Sežana 3+ goals
23%
Bilje 1+ goals
71%
Bilje 2+ goals
36%
Bilje 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)
62%
Bilje (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabor Sežana at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

Bilje away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabor Sežana attack 1.48 + Bilje defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bilje attack 1.24 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tabor Sežana scores more
47%
level
24%
Bilje scores more
29%

Tabor Sežana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tabor Sežana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 6 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sežana
WWLLL
Bilje
LWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tabor Sežana host Bilje

May 9, 2027: Tabor Sežana take on Bilje in 2. SNL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.